美国恐怖故事第三季

Zero-tariff policies, systemic support help African countries expand exports, upgrade industry_我的网站

一 |     文｜老鱼儿          编辑｜杨旭然                    如果把时间拨回2022年底，去问任何一家手机厂商的产品负责人：下一代旗舰的核心卖点是什么？答案大概率逃不出三个词：折叠屏、影像、快充。    

    An exhibitor showcases Ethiopian coffee beans at the 2026 Dianchi International Coffee Culture Carnival in Kunming, Southwest China's Yunnan Province, on August 9, 2026. Photo: VCG It has been three months since China becomes the first major economy to grant unilateral, comprehensive zero-tariff treatment to all African countries with which it maintains diplomatic relations, as well as all least developed countries having diplomatic ties with China. Effective May 1, China extended the favorable policy to 53 African countries. Two African diplomats stationed in China have shared with the Global Times about the benefits of China's policy, particularly in trade of coffee, as well as China's exemplary role in promoting cooperation among Global South countries.
    Aziza Geleta, Deputy Head of Mission of the Ethiopian Embassy in China Photo: Courtesy of the Ethiopian Embassy in China Aziza Geleta, Deputy Head of Mission of the Ethiopian Embassy in China, told the Global Times that the trade policy demonstrates China's commitment to strengthening mutually beneficial economic cooperation with Africa.
For Ethiopia, which is believed to be the birthplace of coffee, this initiative presents significant opportunities. 
"Coffee is not only our leading agricultural export but also an integral part of our cultural heritage. For centuries, Ethiopians have preserved a unique coffee tradition, where families and neighbors gather to prepare and share coffee in a ceremony that symbolizes hospitality and friendship in community," Geleta said. 
With improved market access, Ethiopian coffee exports to China are expected to grow substantially. China has become one of the world's fastest-growing coffee consumption markets and is now Ethiopia's third-largest coffee export destination, Geleta noted.
In 2025, China's coffee industry was valued at 354.9 billion yuan ($52.63 billion), up 13.3 percent year on year. Annual per capita consumption rose from 22.24 cups to 28.57 cups, while the value of coffee bean imports increased by 73.9 percent year on year, according to the 2026 China Urban Coffee Development Report released in July. 
The Ethiopian diplomat believes China's zero-tariff policy will enhance the competitiveness of Ethiopian coffee, increase export earnings, and encourage greater investment across the coffee value chain, including processing, packaging, branding, logistics and quality certification. 
Since July 20 this year, China has granted full market access to coffee beans meeting quarantine requirements from all African countries that have diplomatic ties with China. The full market access is regarded as a landmark achievement in China-Africa cooperation on agricultural market access.
Geleta said that Ethiopia warmly welcomes this landmark policy. Having joined China's zero-tariff arrangement in 2024, the East African country has already witnessed its positive impact on bilateral trade and economic cooperation.
"The policy goes beyond tariff preferences. It demonstrates a practical commitment to South-South cooperation based on mutual respect, shared development and win-win partnership," Geleta noted. 
It creates new opportunities for African countries to diversify exports, strengthen productive capacity and participate more actively in global value chains, the diplomat said. 
As members of the Global South, Ethiopia and China share a common vision of promoting inclusive and sustainable development. This zero-tariff initiative establishes a valuable benchmark for building agricultural trade rules that better reflect the development needs of emerging economies, she noted. 
It also complements the objectives of the FOCAC and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) by supporting greater regional integration and international market access, said Geleta. AfCFTA is a flagship initiative of the African Union designed to transform the continent into the world's largest free-trade area, per the AU.
From Geleta's observation, the market access granted by China is not merely a trade policy, but also a practical example of development cooperation that benefits ordinary people.
Coffee farming sustains millions of Ethiopian households, so greater access to China's market bears direct significance for poverty alleviation, rural advancement and national economic transformation. The policies foster steady demand for Ethiopian coffee, increasing farmer's earnings and bolstering rural community resilience, she said. Such gains closely echo the China-proposed Global Development Initiative, which emphasizes poverty reduction, food security, inclusive growth and sustainable development. 
The diplomat said Ethiopia welcomes Chinese investment in agricultural processing, cold-chain logistics, food manufacturing and value-added industries in Ethiopia. Such investment will support industrialization, technology transfer and job creation while strengthening resilient supply chains, Geleta added. 
    Ambassador of Lesotho to China Mapaballo Lydia Mile Photo: Courtesy of the Embassy of the Kingdom of Lesotho in China Ambassador of Lesotho to China Mapaballo Lydia Mile told the Global Times that the zero-tariff policy since May is "a direct, tangible deliverable of the commitments made under the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) framework. It transitions the rhetoric of 'win-win cooperation' into practical policy."
Mile said the policy provides a structured, phased approach to reducing trade difficulties and securing institutional guarantees. "It perfectly embodies the strong, historical foundations built through FOCAC over the years to forge a modernized, forward-looking economic future."
Amid comments saying that African countries still face challenges beyond tariffs, including logistics, standards and market-access capacity, Ambassador Mile of Lesotho said that tariff reduction is a necessary condition for trade expansion; however, more conditions are required to reach deals. 
Take Lesotho, a landlocked country, for instance. The country faces acute logistical hurdles and high transport costs. Complying with sanitary and phytosanitary measures, as well as quality standards remains a massive challenge for many enterprises in Lesotho. 
To fully benefit from the favorable tariff policy, Mile pointed to systemic technical support for African exporters, targeted investments in agro-processing, and enhanced trade facilitation. 
"Initiatives recently introduced by China Customs, such as the 'Green Channel 2.0' for agricultural products and expanding authorized economic operator mutual recognition capacity building, are exactly the types of institutional support needed to overcome the non-tariff barriers," she elaborated. 
。         那时的手机厂商，都扎在硬件竞赛之中抽不开身。但问题在于，参数越卷越高，对消费者的实用性却边际递减，整个提升过程中所需要投入的成本却越来越高。         所有人都隐约感觉到创新天花板正在逼近，没人能说清下一个出口在哪里。直到最近一段时间，一切都变了，整个手机产业升级的路径正变得清晰起来。         华为盘古、vivo蓝心、小米MiMo、OPPO安第斯、荣耀魔法，中国前五大手机厂商先后拿出了自研大模型。这些更柔软的名字取代了曾经的"骁龙""天玑"，成了手机厂商新品发布会上最核心的叙事主线。         企业们发布会的时长分配在悄悄改变：芯片参数讲十分钟，影像系统讲二十分钟，大模型与AI功能要讲半个小时。         手机厂商们试图用AI加固自己的护城河，但尴尬的问题始终悬在那里：所有人都在往前跑，没有人敢说自己看清了终点，更没人敢说自己能跑到终点。         跑步入场                    2023年初ChatGPT引爆全球AI热潮之后，手机厂商们几乎在同一时间意识到了同一件事：大模型这件事，不能再等了。

二 |          表态最早的是荣耀。

三 | 2023年6月底的MWC上海展上，荣耀CEO赵明就率先提出要将AI大模型引入端侧。他在演讲中说，智能手机正处在AI开启的新一轮创新周期中，荣耀要打造更加个人化的端侧个人模型，实现多模态自然交互和复杂任务闭环服务。         反应最快的则是华为。2023年8月4日，华为开发者大会在东莞松山湖举行，HarmonyOS 4正式发布。

四 | 其中最重磅的消息，是鸿蒙系统首次接入盘古大模型。         十天之后，小米很快跟上。

五 | 2023年8月14日晚，北京国家会议中心，雷军在第四次年度演讲的尾声，现场3500多名观众和线上数百万的观众看到的是，大屏幕上赫然打出"小米全面拥抱大模型"的大字。         到2023年11月1日，vivo正式发布自研蓝心大模型矩阵，包含从10亿到1750亿五款不同参数规模的模型，覆盖端侧、端云两用、云端全场景；半个月后，OPPO开发者大会在上海举办，正式推出自主训练的安第斯大模型AndesGPT。         华为、小米、荣耀、中兴、vivo、OPPO，中国大型手机厂商们几乎完成了在大模型赛道的战略集结，很少管大模型厂商们是怎么做的。         2024年1月8日，OPPO Find X7系列发布会上，高级副总裁、首席产品官刘作虎更给大模型的重要程度再定性。他说："再不布局大模型的手机厂商，就没戏了。"          这句话后来被业内和媒体广泛引用，"自研大模型"成了手机厂商的标配。

六 |          对于专业大模型厂商来说，这算不上是个好消息。

七 |          大模型需要终端落地，手机是最重要的终端入口之一。与手机厂商合作，本是大模型商业化闭环中至关重要的一环。如果头部手机厂商全部选择自研大模型，第三方大模型公司在移动端的商业化路径就会出现一个巨大的缺口。         反击随之而来。         2026年7月13日，阶跃星辰推出全球首款大模型原生智能体手机STEPX Neo，成为第一个亲自造手机的大模型厂商；字节跳动借鸡生蛋，7月18日在2026世界人工智能大会期间推出了与努比亚合作的第二代豆包手机NaviX Ultra。         更远处的压力则是来自于海外。

八 | 天风国际分析师郭明錤的供应链调查显示，OpenAI的AI智能体手机项目正在加速，量产时间已经从最初预测的2028年提前至2027年上半年。         大模型公司亲自下场做手机可能不是大模型公司非常想做的，但手机厂商们的现实动作，决定了他们只能探索这条路。反过来这又加剧了传统手机厂商的生存压力。         形势所迫          手机厂商跑步入场的背影里，野心和紧张各占一半。

九 |          野心在于人工智能大模型似乎无法根本性地抛开手机这个最重要的终端，紧张的最根本原因则是因为，手机市场的容量早就见顶了。         IDC数据显示，2025年中国智能手机市场出货量约2.84亿台，同比下降0.6%。这与2024年同比增长5.6%的复苏势头形成了鲜明对比。         进入2026年，情况没有好转，反而在加速恶化。2026年第二季度，中国智能手机市场出货量约为6601万台，同比下降4.3%，这已经是连续第五个季度出现同比下滑。         如今，用户的换机周期越拉越长，平均已经超过三年，不是刚需就非常不愿意换机。

十 | 市场从增量时代彻底进入存量时代。         存储芯片涨价带来的成本压力正在快速转化为终端价格的上调。

十一 | OPPO、vivo、小米、荣耀等主流品牌相继上调部分机型售价，中端机型普遍涨价300至500元。         价格上涨进一步抑制了消费者的换机意愿。         根据 Counterpoint Research 的《中国智能手机周度销量追踪报告》，覆盖 618 购物节的四周期间，中国智能手机销量同比下降 13%；IDC更预测，随着元器件成本压力持续传导，2026年下半年中国智能手机市场出货量的同比降幅可能扩大至20%左右。

十二 |          在这样的背景下，AI几乎是行业唯一看得见的增长明牌。         IDC预测，2026年中国新一代AI手机出货量将达到1.47亿台，同比增长31.6%，占据整体市场的53%，首次超越非AI手机成为主流。

十三 |          Counterpoint Research的全球数据同样乐观：具备生成式AI功能的智能手机将占2026年全球出货量的45%，2027年进一步提升至52%。         一边是整体市场持续萎缩，一边是AI手机逆势高速增长。押注AI几乎成了一道不需要思考的选择题。         至于为何执着于自研大模型，手机厂商除了担心被收取高昂费用，也担忧差异化。         如果AI能力完全由第三方大模型厂商提供，那么所有手机装上同一款大模型之后，体验就会趋同。在硬件创新已经逼近天花板的今天，失去AI体验的差异化，几乎就等于失去了未来的定价权。         更深层的恐惧，是害怕在AI时代沦为单纯的硬件"壳子"。         如果AI交互、AI服务、AI生态完全由第三方大模型掌控，如果用户打开手机主要是为了使用AI智能体，那么手机厂商的价值就会退化为纯粹的硬件组装厂。         这是每一家头部手机厂商都无法接受的命运。         自研大模型，本质上是一场"护城河保卫战"。它不仅仅是为了赚多少钱，更是为了保住自己在产业价值链中的位置。         没人敢停          如今，AI手机相比之前完全不知道会是什么样子的情况，已经有了更清晰的雏形，与传统智能机的差异逐渐体现了出来。         最大的差异是在交互逻辑和执行能力上。

十四 |          传统智能手机完成任务以指令为驱动，用户必须下达精确的操作或明确的指令，才能得到有效响应。

十五 | AI手机截然不同，用户只需发出模糊的意图，通过语音、文字或图像等多种方式表达，手机就能自动理解并自主操作。         这种从"指令驱动"到"意图驱动"的转变，是硬件交互范式的一次维度提升。         另外，传统智能手机时代，各个App之间相互独立，形成"数据孤岛"。

十六 | AI手机通过系统级智能体跨应用调用服务，打破应用之间的壁垒。         以出差为例，传统智能机时代，用户需要在火车票、飞机票、住宿、餐饮等各类App之间反复操作，拼凑出最佳旅途计划。在新的时代，用户只需对手机说一句"我明天要出差，请给我安排最佳方案"，手机就能自动联动多个App，一次性完成订票、订酒店、设提醒等全流程。         AI手机可以不依赖云端存储数据，甚至不需要网络，仅在设备端本地处理，就能不断学习用户的生活和行为习惯，感知使用场景，提供个性化主动服务。         端侧AI能力在传统智能机时代几乎是不可想象的，而且人工智能系统所匹配的端侧硬件也在快速进化。

十七 | AI手机集成专用神经处理单元（NPU），能效比相较使用CPU的传统智能机可达10到100倍，为端侧大模型推理提供算力基础。         但问题在于，诸多功能优势，并未直接转化为消费者的换机意愿。         Counterpoint Research数据显示，截至2025年底，具备智能体AI能力的手机芯片渗透率为4%，主要集中在高端旗舰机型上，绝大多数在售手机仍不具备真正的智能体能力。这组数据有两层含义：一方面预示着AI手机有着广阔的替代空间；另一方面也说明，现有的AI手机尚未创造出足以驱动换机的革命性体验。         市面上现有的AI手机，大多在原有系统上叠加了一层AI交互功能：把按键操作换成语音操作，把手动搜索换成AI推荐，把修图软件里的功能搬到系统相册里。AI更像功能增强器，远不是当年从按键手机到智能手机那样的革命性升级。         AI手机到底应该长什么样？目前的探索显然还不是最终的答案，没有人知道未来的人工智能和硬件结合，能够创造出怎样的新变化。         对于市场上的所有参与者来说，每家都有自己的路线图，每家都觉得自己走在正确的方向上，没有任何玩家敢站在原地不动。         错过下一个时代的风险是所有相关企业都难以承受的。这是一场没有人敢掉队的赛跑，哪怕跑道的尽头暂时还隐没在雾里。

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